Saturday, July 23, 2011

Why Google+ will succeed wildly. At first. - Good Experience

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Why Google+ will succeed wildly. At first.

Google+ is going to succeed. At least that's what I've been telling people when they ask my opinion of the service. The cleverly designed interface, and the immediate popularity among influential techies (due in no small part to the lack of a Facebook logo), all point to a hit in the making. The latest estimate I've seen is that Google+ has almost 18 million users already. This is a major accomplishment. After some high-profile missteps in social media - Google Wave, Google Buzz - the company has conceived, designed, and launched a success.

My larger conclusion, though, is that Google didn't fundamentally fix any of the major problems of the Facebook experience. And that was the point of the endeavor: beat Facebook. Out-innovate Facebook. Take users away from Facebook. But in the end, the innovations in Google+ are mostly helpful to tech insiders and experts - the exact people, not coincidentally, who are praising the service so strongly right now. Once that initial excitement from the A-list wears off, Google+ will feel, to most users, similar to Facebook.

Consider the circles (which I love, by the way, on a tactical interface-design level - kudos to Andy Hertzfeld). The most prominent part of the Google+ interface is a clever way of categorizing your contacts: friends here, work colleagues there, hackathon buddies over there. The point? To designate the exact subset of your acquaintances who should be able to see any given post that you publish.

The problem with this... well, let me be blunt: how many Facebook users wish that fewer people would read their posts?

If you found an average Facebook user - here I'm not talking a top 1% A-list blogger, but rather someone in the middle of the pack of 750 million - and observed them, say, reading their friends' posts, possibly commenting on one or two, maybe even uploading photos of the recent vacation or playing Farmville - what might you conclude? Would you conclude that the urgent pain point in the Facebook experience is not being able to publish to a subset of your contacts?

I doubt it. At least we've never found that, when Creative Good has done user research in social media. I've heard, and read, lots of complaints about the Facebook experience over the years, and "publishing granularity" has never been one of them.

Now I understand the thinking behind the circles: people often have very different contexts in their lives that they want to keep separate. True enough. And as I said, the interface design is brilliantly executed. I just don't think it's the right strategy, for a simple reason: most users are more concerned with the inbound than the outbound.

If you watch enough people posting on Facebook, and pay attention to the (not infrequent) negative comments they make about Facebook itself, you'll quickly see a pattern. "Why does Facebook hide who's in my News Feed?" "Did Facebook change how Top News works again?" They tend to be comments about the reading, viewing, consuming, receiving experience - not about publishing. The pain point for average users is the overload of incoming information, and the lack or confusion of the interfaces meant to deal with it. Unfortunately, the "stream" on Google+ is nearly identical to the Facebook news feed: a scrolling list of update after update after update after update, with metadata attached to each. It's Facebook without the logo.

Now. For that minority of Facebook users who are posting frequently, here's the main pain point I see mentioned: how do I get more people to read my stuff? How do I get more people to "Like" my project, my post, my group? More followers, more buzz, more influence, more more more publishing reach. Google's response: here's an interface to let you post to fewer people.

One final point. I know that much of the negativity around Facebook, and Mark Zuckerberg, centers on the issue of privacy. The privacy settings seem to have been intentionally designed to be hard to use. And it just feels like Facebook wants to share - and thus sell - more of your info than you might want. To many, the Facebook brand is just a little... dodgy. Thus Google+ is an especially welcome arrival: it's a social network and it's not Facebook!

But this, too, will fade as a competitive advantage. As I've pointed out (as have others), you can flee Facebook for the respect-your-privacy confines of Google+, until you realize: this is the company that drives a car down your street to take pictures of your house. I like Google as much as the next guy, but I'm not about to start posting personal info on Google+... even in a "personal friends" circle. (Other users may feel differently, but I don't think they'll end up trusting Google+ more than Facebook in the long run.)

For now, I can understand the enthusiasm of the tech elite: a brand new UI to play with, new ways to obsessively organize digital stuff, new opportunities to pontificate about "the social graph," and did I mention, it's not Facebook - not a whiff of Farmville about it. All things that geeks today love.

But happy geeks aren't enough. To really out-innovate Facebook, Google will have to consider what average users want. Get out of Mountain View, find a non-techie who uses Facebook, sit down as they log in, and just watch.

Until that happens, average users will enjoy Google+ just fine as they stream, then flood, onto the service. They'll just find, once they get there, that it all feels oddly familiar.

41 Comments:

Laura Creekmore — Jul 20, '11 — 2:01 PM

At some point, I will stop being surprised at how closely you mirror my thoughts about this sort of thing. This is the best analysis I've read yet about Google+.

Jeff — Jul 20, '11 — 2:08 PM

Regarding granularity in outgoing posts, one should pay close attention to the categories you create, the Circles. Think about the divisions in your life and where they may overlap, create a circle that encompasses that overlap. Example: I have a problem with the Facebook and now default categories of "Friends" and "Family." I can definitely parse out my family. There are things I'd like to share with relatives, siblings, children. But "Friends" is a more amorphous category. I don't use it. I have friends I'd put in many different categories, not just one. So, I'm trying to spend some time thinking about the various categories in my life. (So much work, so little time.)

Mark Hurst Author Profile Page

— Jul 20, '11 — 2:11 PM

@Laura - thanks!

@Jeff - do you think it's worth all the time you'll invest to categorize everyone exactly right? Just to play devil's advocate, why not just post everything publicly *except* the occasional post you want to keep private (and for that use a single circle or, dare I utter the word, an email)?

Morgan — Jul 20, '11 — 2:18 PM

I agree with your last statement: "To really out-innovate Facebook, Google will have to consider what average users want."

One way that G+ and circles do address the inbound messaging problem is by letting you select which circles' news feed you are viewing, which is actually a really useful concept: at one moment I might want to listen/read about what my family is posting, at another moment I want to see what techie friends are saying. However this might be a feature that an average user wont bother use...

arvind — Jul 20, '11 — 2:21 PM

good to hear another voice talking about why google+ is not really innovating - and to see it based on actual user research. some more ideas on what innovation could look like: http://sensemaya.org/2011/07/14/real-innovation-social-network-wars

Jeremy Dedic — Jul 20, '11 — 2:25 PM

You nailed it. Affording more control of distributing outbound posts is great for some, but allowing USERS (not the site) to control the messy torrent of inbound content is a MUCH more important and relevant to the majority of users.

Ted Gould — Jul 20, '11 — 2:32 PM

I think the interesting-ness will come when/if Google+ starts building circles for you. Building them yourself is hard, but there's no reason that they couldn't look at the entire social graph and start to help you meet your goals through the analysis of your circles and how your friends built theirs.

Nelson Willhite — Jul 20, '11 — 2:45 PM

The need for circles (missing in facebook) is not merely to limit the scope of outgoing posts. I want the capability to control the visibility of the responses to my posts. I ended up creating two separate facebook accounts. Google+ circles solves this problem.

Ben — Jul 20, '11 — 2:49 PM

I agree with Laura, this is the best analysis I have read about g+ as well :-)

I am apparently not the average user of facebook...I use it daily (multiple times a day) I read most post made by friends and update my status multiple times a week. I agree that I do want more people to read and like my posts, but there are times i would like to post something that I don't want all my in-laws to read, and other relatives, but i am not about to cherry pick through my hundreds of friend to exclude these people, instead I just don't post that comment, or post it and hope I am not making my grandmother cringe ;-) So while I would like more people to read and like my posts, I would prefer as well, that more of the "right" or appropriate people read my post.

I am loving my experience of g+ so far...just wish there were any easy way to get all my friends ported over to it :-S

Thanks for the great article!

Alex — Jul 20, '11 — 2:52 PM

This all seems very on target - but is missing one elephant in the room that I can see: network effects. Even if I prefer G+, I'm unlikely to switch to it if only a handful of my X hundred FB friends use it -- unless FB becomes a truly awful experience and I convince friends to defect en masse. To succeed, G+ must offer a technical solution to that problem (e.g. a possible solution: any time one of my existing FB friends joins G+, that person is automatically added to my G+ account, circles be damned).

I agree completely that the higher-level hurdle is managing inbound information (boy would I love to be able to turn off, using only one setting somewhere, anything generated by any FB game!) With that in mind, the following is critical, absolute must see viewing on the topic of managing inbound traffic:

http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/eli_pariser_beware_online_filter_bubbles.html

Keep up the good work, Mark!

dack — Jul 20, '11 — 2:55 PM

Mark: If the pain point is the overload of information it seems like G+ has helped ease it with streams of your circles, which you left out of your note.

Mark Hurst Author Profile Page

— Jul 20, '11 — 3:07 PM

@dack - in the interest of space I didn't want to post a full-fledged UI evaluation, but the "streams of circles" approach presents many of the same problems that FB does (even in FB's groups feature). for starters, if someone on G+ posts ten times in an hour, they jam the frequency - no way to turn down the signal (unless I de-circle them entirely), no way to survey the entire stream for other posters. then there are UI issues around setup and edit. Ideally it would be fun to dive into these tactics in a future post (in my copious spare time)...

swearfu — Jul 20, '11 — 3:58 PM

maybe instead of worrying about the quantity of people who see content, people should be more worried about the quality of people seeing your content. By cutting down who sees what, they can reduce that overload of people viewing or rather, not viewing your content.

Stacia — Jul 20, '11 — 3:59 PM

I do agree that a major painpoint for Facebook users is info overload. But I believe it is not that simple because people's interactions with Facebook are far from simple.

1) With Google+, you can use circles to decide what you read. This is not totally obvious, but easily done nevertheless.

1.5) There will always need to be a generic stream of everything by everyone. There's not a good reason to get rid of that feature. What could be included instead is an easier way to create a "home stream", or default stream.

2) What do you mean by "success"? Is it just number of users? How happy big-wig users like Xeni Jardin are? I don't see you linking to the goals that Google created for Google+, so how can you gauge its success?

3) "how many Facebook users wish that fewer people would read their posts?" How about asking how many Facebook users wish their mom, aunt, cousin, brother, etc. hadn't seen that last post? Or wish their unemployed friend would stop commenting on everything you post? Hardly anyone thinks of it while posting on Facebook, I think, because the option to change who sees it is not obvious. However, that choice is really obvious (though still clunky) in Google+. It makes you more conscious of what you say to whom. Just like (hopefully) in real life.

Google+ is far from perfect and of course it's still evolving. There will be backlash from both ends.

Jo Van Hove — Jul 20, '11 — 4:37 PM

I'm sure Google+ is good, but it doesn't take into account what Facebook does : everyones wishes to be published, to be heard, to be considered.

Google+ says : 'sharing reinvented' - but people just don't want to share, they want to be heard !! That's Facebook's USP : the expression is important, not the sharing, it's a profoundly different concept...

I'm not a defender of Google, nor Facebook, but Facebook's GoodExperience is not about experience (which is by definition a NON-action) but about 'action', about 'BEING someone' - What is the best 'Good Experience you can give to someone ? It's easy : "BEING SOMEONE". I don't think Google is giving or promising that...

Mark Frankel — Jul 20, '11 — 4:39 PM

In the presentation by Paul Adams, one of the inventors of circles, http://www.slideshare.net/padday/the-real-life-social-network-v2, "Real Life Social Network", he presents the use case of a school teacher not wanting to share her pictures of her visit to a gay bar with her students.

It's a pretty compelling case, but as you point out not one that touches the average user sharing average stuff with their average "friends".

You may want to take a look at Edd Dumbill's post, http://radar.oreilly.com/2011/07/google-plus-social-backbone.html, "Google+ is the social Backbone", where he makes a strong case why this is not just about Google vs Facebook.

According to Edd, Google is looking to create the Social Backbone, thereby making the Social Layer a commodity and enabling developers to embed a social layer in their applications. It sounds very exciting to me as a developer.

Give the article a read and let me know what you think.

Nirali — Jul 20, '11 — 4:41 PM

As much as I like the Circle interface, I have had a really hard time figuring out how I'm going to group people. I also don't like the idea of having to stop and think about which groups I want to send info to - it's just one extra step that actually has prevented me from actively using G+. I'm okay sending out a status update on FB for all to see, even if it's not relevant to everyone. And for those times I want to send a more private message to key people, I'll just send an email.

Mark Hurst Author Profile Page

— Jul 20, '11 — 4:45 PM

@nirali - EXACTLY. thanks.

Jesse Kates — Jul 20, '11 — 4:54 PM

Mark - Will circles cause a reduction in information overload due to posters applying greater selectivity in who sees what posts? I agree with your premise that most users don't complain about access control on Facebook, but I wonder if the circles will create a less overwhelming environment in Google Plus through second-order effects. In other words, rather than addressing overload by being "smart" on the receiving end in the style of Facebook's Top News function, Google has created a different interaction on the posting side that may lead to more effective, preemptive winnowing by the poster, rather than by an algorithm.

Mark Hurst Author Profile Page

— Jul 20, '11 — 4:57 PM

@Jesse - good question. It may very well turn out that way, but I haven't experienced any lack of overload in my G+ explorations. YMMV.

Andreas Kluth — Jul 20, '11 — 6:58 PM

I like your skepticism. It mainly seems to be captured in this paragraph:
“For that minority of Facebook users who are posting frequently, here’s the main pain point I see mentioned: how do I get more people to read my stuff? How do I get more people to “Like” my project, my post, my group? More followers, more buzz, more influence, more more more publishing reach. Google’s response: here’s an interface to let you post to fewer people.”
I think you have that wrong, at least when I extrapolate from myself.
1) “How do I get more people to read my stuff?” Why not try … WordPress, Twitter or … a web site, as in plain old Web 1.0? Wasn’t that supposed to be the idea?
2) “For that minority of Facebook users who are posting frequently….” I’m in the majority of FB users who do NOT post frequently, but that it because I do want to post to fewer people, in a more intimate way. (After all, for my public posts I have WordPress, right here).
3) “Google’s response: here’s an interface to let you post to fewer people.” Actually, no. It’s: “here’s an interface that let’s you post to fewer OR more OR all people.” So my wife and I can communicate, my wife my parents and I, my wife my parents and my friends and I, and …. everybody.
What do I know? I’ve been on G+ for a couple of days. But it’s a new trajectory.

Theresa Quintanilla — Jul 20, '11 — 7:01 PM

I'm a heavy user of Twitter, and a grudging user of Facebook. Both applications have harder to use grouping features. But you've nailed it about the 'stream.'

So here's my question. Can I 'twitterify' the steam... only see the first 200 characters of any post. Then throttle the 'over-sharers'? What we need is more and more controls because what we have is too clumsy... but this seems like a downward spiral.

When I REALLY want to communicate I go back to email.

Michael Dain — Jul 20, '11 — 8:29 PM

I agree as well. I'm a bit surprised, since I have google friends populating from Gmail, where Facebook friends have come more organically from lots of sources. I have yet to figure out the 'public' version of Google+, such as how to follow Jeff Zeldman.
In terms of HCI, I have always said its much easier to parse from a long list of things you don't want rather than tell me what you do want. A life spent trolling record bins hones these sorts of skills, but I think they are innate. You can overload people with noise, but being able to select who you want messages to go to seems like a step backward, no matter how nice the interface.

Christian — Jul 20, '11 — 10:00 PM

This is an incredibly well-articulated post, and you're right on.

I think that, as Fred Wilson suggests, this service will work for an older demographic. My parents dont game FB for more comments. I think they'll genuinely enjoy sharing pictures of their grandkids only to family and close friends.

This service is not for the group that has already abandoned their privacy. Granted, Google has more information than Facebook on all of us, but it's not as overt and people trust it.

Phil Ohme — Jul 20, '11 — 10:09 PM

Regarding "Would you conclude that the urgent pain point in the Facebook experience is not being able to publish to a subset of your contacts? I doubt it. At least we've never found that, when Creative Good has done user research in social media. "
I would venture to guess that this is something that would never come up in any listening lab, usability test, or ethnographic research. Why? Because when this kind of stuff happens, we humans tend to bury it--fix it as best they can, as fast as they can; then forget about it as much as they can. None of us has likely witnessed these types of events (wanting to post to less people) happing with others, but every few days I read about or hear a friend tell me about how their life was almost ruined because they posted something that someone found offensive / shocking / not right. Some get fired, some lose close friends, some repair relations with some apologies. But in all cases, they could have prevented this with the limited posting / circles concept. So always be sure to watch the selection bias, the Heisenberg effect, and the innate desire for humans to want people to like them.

I agree that the UI and experience of the circles is top notch. And that G+ is not really breaking new ground when compared to Facebook. But I see G+ as just a stepping stone to amazing things. They have set a decent foundation to build on, whereas Facebook seems to have locked itself into limited ways (some of which is subconsciously greed driven, like the intentionally hard-to-use privacy settings). Don't get me wrong, I don't trust Google any more than I trust Facebook, but someone has got to take a stand against normal corporate greed. I just didn't think it would be Google until I saw G+.

@Alex - Good call on that TED talk--so true and explicit about what is going on.

Jackson — Jul 21, '11 — 4:25 AM

I'm personally a fan of G+ at the moment and it's two of my conflicting personality traits; a tendency to be an introvert, and an insatiable curiousity, that lead Facebook to be a draining and time-consuming experience that G+ solves.
In all honesty, I don't care enough about what's happening in the life of friends of mine from primary school, but the knowledge that we're still somewhat connected is a comfort in itself.
With Circles, as posters have previously mentioned, the greatest benefit to me comes with the ability to filter the INCOMING posts. I'll often post publicly, and I am glad to get the odd comment from someone I may have forgotten, but the ability to filter the incoming messages is a massive life/time-saver.
Furthermore, it may sound sentimental, but I appreciate the lack of the 'Facebook Wall', because I'm sick of people starting a personal conversation with me in such a public forum. I would much prefer getting an email!

I think that basically, G+ is a win, not for the techies, but for the introverts.

Craig — Jul 21, '11 — 4:27 AM

What about a default circle "The World" that shares publicly with the open internet & all of your circles?

- Keeps control for the ones that need it and makes it easy for exhibitionists to live-out-loud
- Gives Google permission to use these posts, pluses etc. in search results or targeting ads
- Makes it clear to everyone what is public vs. what is private data

Main difference for me between Google+ & Facebook is that Google already captures so much of my digital stream that “fine tuning” it so they can target better ads seems reasonable to me (after all they are an advertising company).

Facebook on the other hand has no clear business model or explanation of what they will or won’t do with your social data in their “small” part of the net. That coupled with the “privacy is dead” concept is just creepy...

What happens in the Circle stays in the Circle!

Dimiter Simov — Jul 21, '11 — 7:10 AM

Mark, I like the way you think and what you write.

You end with: "... To really out-innovate Facebook, Google will have to consider what average users want...Until that happens, average users will enjoy Google+ just fine as they stream, then flood, onto the service. They'll just find, once they get there, that it all feels oddly familiar."

Maybe that is what they want to offer: a familiar experience. I do not think that Google+ wants to out-innovate Facebook; at least not now. Maybe they just want to offer an alternative to Facebook; something that does the same thing but in a slightly different way and looks differently but feels very familiar. I guess, their goal is to gather the crowds - more people means more revenues. They did not manage to do it with Waves and Buzz, now they have a chance.

One point about reading and sending. I am bilingual. I have friends who do not understand English and I have friends who do not understand Bulgarian, and I have friends who read both. I need an interface that will let me post in Bulgarian and in English, and a service that will serve the Bulgarian version to those who do not read English and the English version to those who do not read Bulgarian. I can have the two versions of the text in the same message, but this is clumsy and looks ugly. Note that most of the time I do not mind writing the text twice. I do not want people to see it twice.

Andrew Robinson — Jul 21, '11 — 7:52 AM

I think people are under estimating the parent effect. The fastest growing demographics on facebook are the older demographics. What are all these 45+ people doing? They're adding their children as friends. Teenagers and 20 somethings alike can't fail to accept the request (what are they hiding) but at the same time this opens lots of issues for them in terms of sharing content and having parents comment on their (and their friend's) posts. Personally, I think this effect is being massively overlooked and my hunch would be that it's driving the decline in users in the US and UK.

The issue for Google+ is 2 fold: is this a big enough problem for this age group (my feeling is yes, even if it's not apparent yet) and secondly are they cool enough to get this demographic migrating across. I think the answer to the last part is no.

In the medium term, I simply see facebook realising this problem and developing similar functionality to more easily manage groups of individuals.

Marie Florian — Jul 21, '11 — 8:15 AM

I read your article last night with great interest after having joined Google+ earlier in the day. At first I was wowed by the circles. They do look so good and I thought "finally I can separate clients, friends and family. Woohoo."

However, once the initial excitement wore off, I realised that I wouldn't be able to cope with updating Google+ circles, facebook, twitter etc. Something would have to go. My thoughts turned to my facebook page and all my "friends". If I could put them into circles right now, who would go where? To my surprise, I wasn't comfortable separating any of them.

And then it hit me! My attitude towards facebook has changed. I don't really want little circles. I want wide open space! I want random, unexpected and interesting. On facebook I've got use to cringe worthy, silly and dumb comments, because they come with fun, wow and wonderful. (And these days I notice more of the latter). Just like my friends, clients and family members, I post comments that not everyone is interested in or finds relevant. But because we've all agreed to come together, share parts of our lives on facebook and be ourselves warts and all, it's quite liberating. Until yesterday I didn't realise how much facebook has helped me to be more tolerant, open minded and accepting.

So for now I've decided that I'm not going to put anyone in a circle. I'm going to stay with facebook and just see what happens. I'm not sure if I'm an average facebook user, but if I am, then somehow joining Google+ yesterday has somehow made me realise how much I really like facebook and Mark Zuckerberg. Isn't that funny?

Nancy Peske — Jul 21, '11 — 10:00 AM

I must be the oddball; I DO care about limiting my posts to particular groups. On Facebook, I ended up hiding people who post 6x a day about their pet passions and then I completely forget I'm connected to them. I post certain things only to local friends, others to family and trusted friends, others to my autism community followers, etc., to reduce the risk of being blocked. And yes, it is EASY to do this on Facebook! Google + has no advantage in this area (heck, I can even hide posts from particular people or groups). Sure, we all want everyone to be fascinating by every post and tweet, but if you're filtering what comes in, you have to see that other people want to do that,t too.
You're right about controlling INCOMING info. On Facebook, I used to be able to check in to my autism followers when I allotted time to catch up on them; now I have to weed through Top News and News Feed to see if they posted, then check them out individually. That's a huge problem for me and it sounds like Google + may not be any help in that area. Why should I learn a whole new Facebook-esque interface and have to work into my life yet another social media network? There has to be a compelling reason.
Improved privacy? Perhaps it doesn't provide as many hurdles and glitches as Facebook does, but Google is so tone-deaf to the user experience that they will post an ad seconds after you type a keyword into a private Gmail. It may be a bot, but it feels like Big Brother is watching you--creepy. Thus, I don't trust Google's brand any more than I do Facebook's when it comes to privacy.

http://www.nancypeske.com

Jeff — Jul 21, '11 — 10:00 AM

@Mark To answer your question, no, it's not worth a huge amount of time to categorize your circles but it's worth some time. It's similar to taking a few minutes to think about your personal level of privacy. I thought about privacy early on and have developed some simple rules I adhere to. It just took a few minutes and it's helped me traverse the ever-more-public social netwaves.

Reid — Jul 21, '11 — 10:42 AM

Fantastic writeup. I couldn't agree more.

It's interesting to see that many of the commenters are saying that they like to have that split of the audience into different groups of people who would be interested in a certain subject. I totally understand that, but the flaw I see there is that we have to make guesses about who would and wouldn't be interested. Sure, I can create a circle for the people interested in the political articles I share, but how do I really know who would and wouldn't be interested in it? It's possible (even likely) that in choosing other people for your categories rather than having people choose what they do and don't see of yours, you're leaving out some of the people who would be most interested, and including some of the people who really don't want to see it and who have to hide you to escape it.

Ultimately, I think that a social network has to be very simple and understandable for most people, with ways of customizing it under the surface for those of us who want that. You're absolutely right that Circles are appealing to the tech crowd, but for the average user, why are they being given the more detailed control right off the bat?

laurie kalmanson — Jul 21, '11 — 10:48 AM

mark -- yes to all, plus (+): to the extent that the circles mediate the feed that's exactly the answer to the question

also: i have not ever and will not ever post a single photo of my kid on facebook or google plus; they get emailed the old fashioned way to exactly those i want to see them

that said, there are a few dog pix online ... but who knows what they do when nobody is home

xoxox

Guilherme — Jul 21, '11 — 1:10 PM

I really like Google+. I belive this app probably will be more integrated over the time cause we start to see it in Gmail for example. I think it is not a fight against facebook cause google has everything (mail, video and so on...) just need to delivery a good UX. This is what Google+ does.

Kevin Embree — Jul 21, '11 — 5:00 PM

Great post, it's not about providing "publishing granularity" as a user need or desire, it's about teaching "publishing granularity" to users in order to drive ad targeting granularity.

Reach and Frequency via search = Adwords

Reach, Frequency and Gmail = Adwords+

Reach, Frequency, Gmail and Google+ profile data = Adwords++++

Here's a snippet from the Google+ privacy policy:
"We will record information about your activity - such as posts you comment on and the other users with whom you interact - in order to provide you and other users with a better experience on Google services.

We may also collect information about you from other users, such as when someone puts you in one of their circles or tags you in a photo. Some users may choose to display information about you publicly, such as by displaying your public profile name and photo on their Google Profile in a list of people they’ve added to their circles."

Imagine this scenario: user searches keyword "swimming", user's Gmail account contains high frequency of keywords "swim" and "swimming" and user's google+ profile intro and bragging rights includes references to keywords "swim" and "swimmer".

Imagine the average CPC (cost per click) and conversion levels for this type of "weighted" keyword campaign.

It's all about Adwords...plus.

Mark Chackerian — Jul 21, '11 — 5:34 PM

Super gnarly insight, Mark.

fjpoblam — Jul 22, '11 — 9:50 AM

It is simple and logical. The idea of "success" is meaningless until Google promotes Google pluzz from "field trial" status to general availability.

Jason Paul — Jul 22, '11 — 10:07 AM

People have already commented this but I'll reiterate. It's the public circle option that makes G+ bigger than Facebook and more manageable than Twitter. I don't think G+ is better on the family and friends level. But on the public social level it has already blown them out of the water.

Mark Hurst Author Profile Page

— Jul 22, '11 — 10:56 AM

@Jason - can you give an example.. for an average Facebook user, if they were to move to G+, what aspect of the experience would "blow them out of the water," when creating a public post?

carsen young — Jul 22, '11 — 11:00 AM

I think you're dead wrong when you say that people don't care about posting only to specific circles. It seems you're basing it largely on what you have or haven't' seen people publicly post a comment on. I've often wished I could easily post a status to a specific group of friends on facebook, yet I've never commented about the issue online. I've heard other friends voice similar desires, but have never seen even one of them comment about it online. Just because people don't voice a complaint, doesn't mean they aren't at all concerned with it. I've seen people untag themselves in photos on Facebook because they didn't want certain ones of their friends to see that photo.

Google is billing it more as a "share with who would be interested" feature, but in reality, it's much more likely to be used as a "DON'T share with people I'd rather not have see this" feature, and I think it stands to be a big success on that front.

To me the question of success is going to be can Google get a large enough user base, before Facebook implements alot of the features that might draw users to G+. I think G+ has the potential to knock facebook off it's throne, but if and only if, they can attract enough users before facebook has the chance to respond.

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